I'm yet to look into the full events of the past few months but so far things are going mostly as anticipated.
"We didn't expect Taliban forces to move so quickly."
Some are saying.
Actually, yes.
You should have.
The long and short of it is, as I was telling trainees almost 20 years ago now, is this.
The "War on Terror and our efforts in the middle east are not wars that will be won on the battlefield but won in the the hearts and minds of the people."
The original grievance of the Various terrorist organizations of the 90's and 00's was that their homes and nations were being used as battlegrounds between larger nations and that their rights and cultures were being disrespected.
So why/how did the Taliban gain so much ground so quickly?
Simple.
They won the war.
The coalition and American forces won the ground battle yes, but after years of occupation the Taliban won war in the hearts of the people.
Pulling American forces out of those nations was not the wrong move.
Not by a long shot.
Various pundits and arm chair strategists will give their reasonings as to why we should pull out.
But the simple answer is that it was time.
Win or loose, it was time.
There would be no accurate gauge on the effectiveness of the strategies and support that has been poured into the region over the past twenty or more years (depending on how you view the scope of the conflict). Like knocking over the first domino in a carefully constructed design, pulling American forces back and looking at what was built and/or achieved was necessary.
And now that has been done things, over the course of the next handful of years will play out in a number of ways but from a success perspective it will be hard to tell immediately.
For starters, the Taliban and groups that have supported them over the past decades have been taking a much longer view of the proceedings. After all, these regions have been disputed by major world powers since recorded history began. Been passed back and forth as well as hosted major civilizations from start to finish.
So they've been planning and waiting for the moment coalition and American troops would leave, and as the dominos placed by those forces fell so are the ones they had placed.
They were able to snag "seats of power." essentially over night by all accounts.
But that's the interesting part, and why, things will take awhile to shake out.
Just because you sit in the castle does not mean you control what is happening in the fields.
If the Taliban forces want to be taken seriously as a government then they will have to adhere to larger international laws.
After all, they too had been moving and operating on the resources that had been brought into the region over the course of the conflict. So the question is, did they actually set up a government or simply win some well executed and planned battles?
The second very large factor that will determine success of the whole endeavor is how the outside.
world will interact with the situation at hand.
Remember, the major reason many of the terrorist organizations were able to make such headway in their agendas and why groups like the Taliban formed in the first place was because of disrespect and religious suppression.
Especially in the early 00's the agenda was pushed forward on the backs of people screaming "Christian Nation" and "Muslims are bad." And even though this was not the intention of those tasked with fighting the war on Terrorism these were often the loudest voices heard, or allowed through the curtains of propaganda.
Let's be honest, both sides were guilty of this.
So over the coming months the U.S. forces have two very large, very tough tasks ahead of themselves.
First, is to prove themselves.
Aiding the interpreters and other on the ground allies that have helped, for years, the American and Coalition troops be so successful in their military maneuvers.
Getting they, and their families, safely out of country until the fighting dies down.
Once the blood and tensions of cooled it will more than likely be safe for them to return home and begin the hardest part of the whole thing.
Building peace.
Not a nation.
Not a tactically advantageous location.
but a safe and peaceful place like that so many people from nations like the U.S. take for granted.
This will be a true test of the whether or not "The U.S. won the war on Terror." is in how we treat our allies from these past 20 years.
This is how we will win the hearts in the battle.
The second piece of the puzzle.
And possibly the most difficult, is how to aid in the years to come.
As has been shown through out the course of the Covid Pandemic no nation is truly isolated.
No one nation is truly independent of any other.
How the U.S. and N.A.T.O forces choose to aid and show support in the region will show how much respect is had for the nations we were 'saving' as many people view it.
Let's be real.
Mission was accomplished.
The perpetrators behind the September 11th attacks were brought to justice in one form or another.
The political parties that had become dictatorships that had been installed by Allied forces through the mid 1900's removed and local governments in various forms of success taking over the roles.
The mistrust is still there, and will be there, easily for another full generation or two.
Hell, here in the U.S. we're still debating civil rights between the races and trying to find a healthy balance between religion and government, so attempting to enforce such in another nation any further would be an exercise in narcistic hubris.
So that is how we win minds. We recognize that the tasks outlined in the 00's have been achieved and quietly withdraw for the time being.
One third piece to this puzzle.
Respect.
Recognizing that it will be painful to watch as things slowly settle out for good or ill in the region over the course of the next few years.
But also offering true aid when needed.
Natural disasters, famine, disease.
These are still battles that need fought on a global scale, and in many places that are considered "first world." still rear their ugly heads.
So on our side of the fence it will be the task of regrouping, examining both success and failures, while retraining to meet the tasks and difficulties ahead. We also need to keep the gates open for the people in true danger to be able to find safe harbor until the storm has passed.
As things settle there, into what ever the future has in store it will be time to look inward and more close to home. To the South. To the island nations and those we share borders with.
Because right now, much as was happening in the middle east during the past decades, we have migrants fleeing warzones. Coming to the U.S. for help and safety from conflicts instigated by those in our nations past. Those aren't opinions. Those are matters of public record.
But this time, unlike the problems caused during the 70's into the 00's and all of the conflicts entered into their we should not be asking "how do we fix this."
we should be asking "how can we help."
And a much more difficult question.
"How can they help us."
Success is measured in years and decades, not weeks and months.
Stay Safe out there.
